Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has strongly asserted that his detailed mathematical and political calculations clearly indicate that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu will not win the 2027 general election. According to him, all indices point to an inevitable loss for the incumbent administration, which he believes has already failed to inspire confidence among Nigerians across the country.
El-Rufai made these remarks while speaking during an interview on Channels Television’s flagship program, Sunday Politics. Now positioned as one of the most vocal leaders within the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition, the former governor declared that President Tinubu has no realistic or strategic pathway to victory in the upcoming polls. He noted that the political climate is changing rapidly and that Nigerians are increasingly disillusioned with the APC-led government.
“Tinubu will be third in the 2027 election. I have done my maths, and the numbers are clear. He has no pathway to victory. The worst-case scenario is that there will be no outright winner in the first ballot, and a runoff will be required,” El-Rufai emphasized. He further urged Nigerians not to rely on political promises or propaganda but instead to judge the government by reflecting on their daily lives and well-being.
“Ask yourself honestly, is your life better now under President Tinubu? That is the only question that matters,” he challenged citizens. He further criticized the Tinubu administration for lacking genuine intentions to deliver meaningful reforms and claimed that its actions so far should already raise doubts among the public.
Addressing ongoing speculations about his possible return to federal office, El-Rufai dismissed any suggestion of serving again as a minister, pointing out that he had already held such roles in the past and would not be seeking to repeat them. However, he admitted that there had been serious discussions about him becoming the Minister of Energy, for which he had already drawn up an extensive reform blueprint aimed at fixing Nigeria’s struggling power sector.
Once a loyal member of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and a strong campaigner for Tinubu during the 2023 elections, El-Rufai has now distanced himself from the ruling party. He has openly aligned with opposition figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP and Labour Party’s Peter Obi. He insisted that political loyalty to parties or individuals matters far less than the people’s will at the ballot box.
“I was in APC, yet I could not deliver my state. Bola Tinubu himself did not even win his state. Elections are not decided by political leaders; they are decided by the people,” El-Rufai said pointedly, stressing that voters hold the ultimate power.
The outspoken former governor also took aim at the government’s poor handling of national security, lamenting that officials often make exaggerated claims about defeating terrorists and insurgents, while in reality, criminal elements continue to terrorize ordinary Nigerians. According to him, the disconnect between official rhetoric and the situation on the ground is proof of failed governance.
When asked about promises made by some of his political allies, including Labour Party’s Peter Obi and former Rivers State Governor Chibuike Amaechi, to serve only a single term if elected, El-Rufai expressed strong skepticism. He argued that such pledges are unrealistic and ultimately dishonest to the electorate.
“I want them to stop making these kinds of promises. Nobody believes them because everyone knows that once politicians get into power, things change. Such commitments are even unfair because circumstances can evolve. They should focus on delivering results instead of making empty declarations,” he stated bluntly.
With Nigeria’s political landscape heating up ahead of 2027, El-Rufai’s defection to the opposition bloc, his harsh criticism of the Tinubu administration, and his insistence that the ruling APC is headed for defeat have already intensified debates within political circles. His statements are expected to further reshape alliances as the country prepares for another decisive election.